Who defaults on Covid loans, with Maurizio Fiaschetti
So what is driving the default of an SME on a loan? We focused on three potential drivers: the firm's resources, board level factors, and the loan attributes.
I don't want to bore people going through all the variables that we considered but we have three categories of variables and within the categories we have a bunch of other variables. So what we found basically is the following an increased amount of financial resources and increased size of the board and a longer board's tenure, all these three elements are decreasing the default rate of firms. This is quite reasonable, right?
The size of the board is maybe a bit less intuitive. We are talking about the board size, we're not talking about the firm's size, which plays an extremely important role. But our focus was on the board size wich speaks to corporate governance being important there is a debate about corporate governance, many people make it more complex, but that is helping sharing the responsibility. So you may come a sounder, maybe a more bulletproof decision.
Matt Komos and the state of the American consumer credit economy
I think the unprecedented level of government support and the way that lenders and consumers alike have been able to help keep the ship afloat, mean that it definitely could have been a lot worse than what we've seen up to date. But to your point, there are still plenty of consumers, hurting out there, and hopefully are getting that assistance as they need it.
So we actually as home prices started coming back up, we saw that consumer started reprioritizing their mortgage ahead of credit card. And what we saw, you know, actually starting back in like the first quarter of 2017, we first see that mortgage overtakes auto as the primary payment. So the phenomenon of mortgage becoming the highest ranked actually started well before this pandemic. And then what we saw in the pandemic, was the separation between auto and mortgage delinquency got even bigger. It's likely due to a number of factors, as we talked about the accommodations, for sure, you know, suppressing that delinquency, but also, you had so many people now working from home that they had to protect their home, they might be willing to maybe let one of their autos go, because they weren't going anywhere, you know, and people weren't taking road trips, and they weren't worried about their car, they had to make sure that they had a place to work that coupled with the home price index in the US.